Quantitative Trader - Sports Prediction Markets

About the Role

You will turn team and player information into probability distributions and quote two-sided prices on discrete outcomes. You will update markets for injuries lineups and in-play events while managing spreads size and inventory. You will validate models against historical data avoid look-ahead bias and manage resolution correlation and position risk.

Requirements

• Demonstrated skill forecasting real-world events for money with quantitative evidence
• Ability to explain model validation and evidence against a model
• Strong applied statistics
• Knowledge of Bayesian inference hierarchical models and time-varying team strength
• Machine-learning judgment
• Strong data instincts with odds histories lineups injuries and results
• Ability to identify look-ahead bias in backtests
• Fluent English
• No degree required

Responsibilities

• Build event models from team and player state
• Estimate probabilities using ratings lineups pace venue weather and referee effects
• Quote two-sided prices on discrete outcomes
• Manage spreads size and inventory
• Reprice markets for injuries lineups red cards and delayed starts
• Implement suspension logic for live markets
• Evaluate contract resolution rules
• Size positions and manage correlated exposure

Hiring Process

Four stages. No filler rounds, no games. 1. Intro call: short conversation with the hiring lead, context on the role/firm, understand fit. 2. Technical deep-dive: role-specific, understand how you think. 3. Take-home or case: a scoped problem reflecting actual work, review the output with you. 4. Onsite or final round: meet the broader team, cultural fit, stretch discussion, offers move fast after this.